RBC sent a request to the Ministry of Economic Development.

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According to Vladimir Salnikov, Deputy Director of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF), the peak of investment growth was reached in the middle of last year, followed by a "downward correction." "We currently estimate the intensity of investment activity to be slightly higher than the 2019 level," he says.

Mining (17% of the total, according to Rosstat) and transport and storage, including pipelines, railways and warehousing (20%) account for significant shares of the total investment volume. "These industries largely ensured the growth in investment. There was an adaptation to sanctions restrictions in production austria whatsapp number database and the expansion of transport restrictions," explains Salnikov. For example, in oil and gas production, investment growth in 2023 amounted to 4.7%, but in monetary terms this corresponds to more than 300 billion rubles (this is more than all last year's investments in the finished metal products industry).


What are the sources of investment growth?
According to statistics, approximately one fifth of all investments by medium and large businesses in fixed assets (19.6%, or 5 trillion rubles) were made in 2023 from budget funds. Thus, 9.4% of investments were made from federal budget funds, 9.1% from regional budgets, and another 1.1% of investments were made from municipal funds. In 2022, state budget funds made it possible to make 20.5% of investments, which, as previously reported, was the highest figure since 2009.

The companies' own funds served as a source for 56% of all investments (RUB 14.3 trillion). Bank loans and borrowed funds from other organizations accounted for 9 and 7% of investments, respectively, or RUB 2.2 trillion and 1.8 trillion.

Drivers of investment demand in addition to the military-industrial complex and import substitution are the turn of trade to the East and the expansion of transport infrastructure - the development of the Eastern Polygon, port facilities, the construction of logistics complexes on the border with China, says Daria Tarasenko, an analyst at the Gazprombank Center for Economic Forecasting. Also, the growth of capital investments will be influenced by the modernization of housing and communal services and social construction (in particular, schools and hospitals), which the president spoke about in his address to the Federal Assembly, she admits.

"The new drivers of investment demand are sustainable, and the growth of investment in them is not a temporary phenomenon," Tarasenko is confident. At the same time, she expects that the role of the budget as the main driver of investment will remain in the medium term.

Salnikov, on the contrary, believes that the dominance of government procurement and government investment "is not particularly visible." Government finances as a source of investment are growing rapidly, their growth rates are higher than those of companies' own funds, but it cannot be said that they determine all trends, he believes. "Yes, budget investments are growing faster, but their volume is almost four times smaller than the volume of own funds," Salnikov notes.

At the same time, he stipulates, it is often difficult to single out state funds in investment statistics. "We only see what is directly financed from the budget. But we do not see investments induced by state demand, when the income of enterprises from state purchases is actually transformed into investments," the expert says.

In the medium term, the driver of investment will be the companies' own funds, Latypov agrees. He emphasizes that most of the industries that are leaders in investment growth are among the priority areas of the structural transformation of the Russian economy. "Accordingly, investments in these industries will most likely continue to grow, but the pace will be lower due to the base effect," says Latypov. According to him, the spending on construction and infrastructure announced in the address should give impetus to investment.