When will the labor shortage end in Russia?
Posted: Wed Jan 22, 2025 6:21 am
the fall of 2023, it fell to a record 2.9%, but by the end of December, it is predicted to return to 3%. It will remain at this level in 2024. At the same time, the labor shortage, which is limiting economic development, will decrease, according to economists. Among the main reasons are digitalization and the introduction of AI, as well as a decrease in foreign investment in the real sector and a decrease in demand. The optimal unemployment rate is 4%, experts say, and the labor market is currently overheated .
Analysts surveyed by el salvador whatsapp number database the Central Bank expect a reversal in the labor market. According to their forecast, the unemployment rate will begin to gradually increase. In December 2023, it will reach 3% (official statistics for this month have not yet been published, they appear with a lag). By the last month of 2024, the indicator will remain at the same level, according to a fresh macroeconomic survey by the Bank of Russia (Izvestia studied it). For the calculation, the Central Bank used the responses of 27 economists.
By the end of 2025, the indicator could increase to 3.1%, and in December 2026 – to 3.2%, the document says.
According to the latest data from Rosstat, unemployment was 2.9% in November last year, the lowest since 1991. The rate has been gradually decreasing throughout the year. The monthly figure in 2023 ranged from 3.6 to 2.9%, the All-Russian Research Institute of Labor told Izvestia. They added that the labor market worked for job seekers throughout last year.
However, unemployment will begin to grow slowly in the future, confirmed Tatyana Ushkats, a lecturer at the RUDN University Faculty of Economics. According to her, the main reasons include a reduction in foreign investment in the real sector. As well as a deterioration in domestic and external demand for goods and services. In addition, digitalization and automation of production will have an impact.
The introduction of artificial intelligence will lead to some release of labor, agreed leading analyst of Freedom Finance Global Natalia Milchakova. In 2025, she expects unemployment to rise to 3.2–3.3%, and in 2026 — to 3.3–3.4% among the working population.
People with the required qualifications are already employed, added Yulia Dolzhenkova, professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. According to her, a fifth of all unemployed people in January-November last year were job seekers aged 50 and older. Although age discrimination in the labour market has decreased, it is quite difficult for them to find work. And their numbers will only grow, the expert believes.
Another reason for the trend reversal is unattractive salaries in some industries (especially budget ones). Therefore, Russians prefer to continue searching or register as unemployed, said Yulia Dolzhenkova. Due to the shortage of personnel, job seekers now have inflated demands for salaries and social benefits.
The All-Russian Research Institute of Labor confirmed that, according to Rosstat data, from January to October 2023, the average monthly nominal salary increased by 16.7%, to 73.8 thousand rubles.
In general, a low unemployment rate is considered more desirable - it indicates effective employment of the population, an increase in income and consumer demand, noted Tatyana Ushkats from RUDN.
The optimal indicator for G7 countries is 4%, said hh.ru's chief labor market expert Natalia Danina. Such unemployment will reflect healthier trends in the movement of free labor.
The labor market is currently objectively overheated, says Dmitry Kulikov, director of the ACRA sovereign and regional ratings group. In the baseline scenario, the unemployment rate will stop decreasing in 2024, the expert believes.
Analysts surveyed by el salvador whatsapp number database the Central Bank expect a reversal in the labor market. According to their forecast, the unemployment rate will begin to gradually increase. In December 2023, it will reach 3% (official statistics for this month have not yet been published, they appear with a lag). By the last month of 2024, the indicator will remain at the same level, according to a fresh macroeconomic survey by the Bank of Russia (Izvestia studied it). For the calculation, the Central Bank used the responses of 27 economists.
By the end of 2025, the indicator could increase to 3.1%, and in December 2026 – to 3.2%, the document says.
According to the latest data from Rosstat, unemployment was 2.9% in November last year, the lowest since 1991. The rate has been gradually decreasing throughout the year. The monthly figure in 2023 ranged from 3.6 to 2.9%, the All-Russian Research Institute of Labor told Izvestia. They added that the labor market worked for job seekers throughout last year.
However, unemployment will begin to grow slowly in the future, confirmed Tatyana Ushkats, a lecturer at the RUDN University Faculty of Economics. According to her, the main reasons include a reduction in foreign investment in the real sector. As well as a deterioration in domestic and external demand for goods and services. In addition, digitalization and automation of production will have an impact.
The introduction of artificial intelligence will lead to some release of labor, agreed leading analyst of Freedom Finance Global Natalia Milchakova. In 2025, she expects unemployment to rise to 3.2–3.3%, and in 2026 — to 3.3–3.4% among the working population.
People with the required qualifications are already employed, added Yulia Dolzhenkova, professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. According to her, a fifth of all unemployed people in January-November last year were job seekers aged 50 and older. Although age discrimination in the labour market has decreased, it is quite difficult for them to find work. And their numbers will only grow, the expert believes.
Another reason for the trend reversal is unattractive salaries in some industries (especially budget ones). Therefore, Russians prefer to continue searching or register as unemployed, said Yulia Dolzhenkova. Due to the shortage of personnel, job seekers now have inflated demands for salaries and social benefits.
The All-Russian Research Institute of Labor confirmed that, according to Rosstat data, from January to October 2023, the average monthly nominal salary increased by 16.7%, to 73.8 thousand rubles.
In general, a low unemployment rate is considered more desirable - it indicates effective employment of the population, an increase in income and consumer demand, noted Tatyana Ushkats from RUDN.
The optimal indicator for G7 countries is 4%, said hh.ru's chief labor market expert Natalia Danina. Such unemployment will reflect healthier trends in the movement of free labor.
The labor market is currently objectively overheated, says Dmitry Kulikov, director of the ACRA sovereign and regional ratings group. In the baseline scenario, the unemployment rate will stop decreasing in 2024, the expert believes.